September 25, 2019
Yesterday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the House would begin a formal impeachment inquiry against President Trump—alleging he betrayed his oath of office and our national security by seeking the Ukrainian President to investigate Vice-President Biden’s conduct when asking Ukrainian President to fire their Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin in 2016.
The following opinions are strictly mine. Effort has been made to avoid any political leanings. The objective to these writings is to provide insightful context to our ever-fluid contemporary news cycle to help calm the masses. Most importantly, please understand that news in the PRESENT always seems more dire than news from the PAST. Time provides context to almost everything—hence the importance to understand history better. The better you understand history, the better you can predict the future.
A great amount of people would be very content with impeaching President Trump—understandably so. President Trump is undoubtedly crass and a bully. So what will happen to the Stock Market if President Trump is impeached? I believe a more important question should be—will President Trump be impeached?
The U.S. Constitution provides great latitude for our President’s conduct—immense latitude. Because the President is the head of the Executive Branch, they can run the Executive Branch as they see fit. You cannot charge a President with a crime—hence The Mueller Report’s conclusion. However, the U.S. Constitution provides two remedies for any egregious act by a President—Impeachment and/or Elections. Both remedies are strictly political—as it should be. The framers of our Constitution didn’t want our Presidents to be easily removed from office by the opposing party—hence a vote of impeachment must pass both the House and the Senate.
It seems likely that the House will vote in favor of impeachment. Passing an impeachment vote in the House is analogous to indicting a person with an offense (i.e. a prosecutor charging someone with a crime). After this indictment by the House, a “trial” would occur in the Senate to “hear the charge” by the House—where the Senate plays the Jury and then decides yes or no to impeach the President. Since two-thirds of the Senate (67 of 100 Senators) must vote YES to impeach a President, it seems very unlikely that the President will actually be impeached.
So what does this all mean? The House will likely reprimand the President with impeachment hearings for historical records, but no substantive change will occur. This impeachment process will likely be only ceremonial. Donald Trump will likely remain President until next year’s election at that time we will once again choose the President. I understand this is not ideal for many people but it is the likely outcome.
I believe today’s politics have become strictly a team sport. We fervently fight to oppose the other side and support our side at all cost—seeking any evidence to support our views and disregarding any counterpoints. We see less and less objectivity. Less and less do we argue without our own preconceived prejudices.